Will the world end in 2012? The astronomical evidence.

Professor Jocelyn Bell Burnell gave a talk at the University of Cape Town on the 12 April 2011 on this topic, discussing the astronomy-based evidence and scientific predictions for the end of the world in 2012, and whether they hold any weight.

 

Professor Jocelyn Bell Burnell has an exceptionally long list of credentials, the most recent of which include being awarded an honorary doctorate by Harvard University in 2007 and an honorary doctorate of science from the University of Durham in the same year.

Professor Burnell was the first to observe and document a pulsar on 28th November 1967, proving the existence of previously theorised neutron stars. She was a research student at the time and her thesis supervisor, Antony Hewish, won the Nobel Prize in Physics for the discovery, although this does not seem to be something she has ever expressed any bitterness about, saying the following in an after-dinner speech in 1977:

There are several comments that I would like to make on this: First, demarcation disputes between supervisor and student are always difficult, probably impossible to resolve. Secondly, it is the supervisor who has the final responsibility for the success or failure of the project. We hear of cases where a supervisor blames his student for a failure, but we know that it is largely the fault of the supervisor. It seems only fair to me that he should benefit from the successes, too. Thirdly, I believe it would demean Nobel Prizes if they were awarded to research students, except in very exceptional cases, and I do not believe this is one of them. Finally, I am not myself upset about it — after all, I am in good company, am I not?

Pulsars are highly magnetised, rotating neutron stars which emit a beam of electromagnetic radiation. A neutron star is a type of stellar remnant that can result from the gravitational collapse of a massive star during a supernova. Such stars are composed nearly entirely of neutrons. They have a very small radius and a very high density

In a recent talk Professor Burnell gave on CapeTalk567 [download the mp3], she expressed her opinion that pulsars may have a practical application one day, acting as interstellar lighthouses to assist in space travel.

She is particularly concerned with the recent spike in interest in the end of the world in 2012, noting that people know enough science to exaggerate a kernel of truth, but not enough to realise that they are being misled.

The Mayan’s operated on cyclical time frames rather than the linear ones we understand. For this reason their calendar was based on cycles, but at the end of one of this specific long count, which last 5000 years, beginning 11th August 3114 BCE and ending on the 21st December 2012, the Mayans are unfortunately no longer around to switch the calendar to the following cycle.

The predictions stemming from this have resulted in the popular belief that the world will end on 21st December 2012 as people misguidedly imposed the idea that the end of the Mayan calendar did not signal the end of a cycle, but rather the end of the world.

The focus of this article is on the astronomical causes that have been suggested for this end, of which there are many, from hazards from space to earthquakes, tidal wave, and volcanoes, all caused by astronomy-based forces.

There have been many predictions made about the end of the world during mankind’s existence. Visit this website, Many Endings.com, for a list of them. If I click on 1987, the year of my birth, these are the predictions I find that were made about the end of the world in that year:

The end of the world in 1987

That’s not even mentioned the Biblical book of Revelations, Nostradamus, crop circles etc. NASA has named the movie, 2012, the most unscientific, ridiculous film ever made, expressing their annoyance at having to set up a helpline specifically for people anxious about the end of the world in 2012.

Prof Burnell said she Googled “end of the world in 2012” and found 56 million search results, which is a big number even to an astronomer, especially when you consider that the majority of them are scary, panicky sites.

The end is predicted to occur at 11:11am GMT (or 11:11pm UT). What’s a 12 hour difference at the end of the world in any case? Coincidentally, the Sun reaches it’s southernmost position that year at 11:12am GMT of 21 December, which is the Summer solstice.

There are a lot of fluffy theories out there around the end of the world prediction and they are hard to get a grip on in order to analyse, but some of the astronomical ones are easier to consider.

The Sun

Prediction: The Sun’s magnetic field will reverse. Solar storms will destroy the Earth.

The scientific truth: The Sun has an eleven year cycle, which means that not only does the magnetic field reverse every eleven years but the number of sunspots and solar storms also comes and goes.

sunspots - solar maximum and solar minimum

The Sun’s magnetic field reversal and the number of sunspots go hand in hand. We have seen many reversals so far since we’ve been observing the Sun for centuries.

sunspot cycle

As you can see, cycles can be quite variable in length, with eleven years being an approximate.

sunspot cycleIn 2009 the magnetic field reversed but the sunspots didn’t appears and the sunspots cycle didn’t start. Based on estimates by NASA astronomers, the solar maxim is expected to peak in 2013, not 2012, and not only that but it will also be half the height/strength of the last one, the lowest its been in over a century. This will also mean we can expect fewer solar storms. Find the official study of the solar cycle prediction here.

A solar storm is when the Sun emits a blast of charged particles (protons and electrons). These can be quite hazardous, particularly to astronauts in space at the time who will receive a very strong dose of radiation. It is also quite bad for satellites, potentially knocking out satellite communication. Satellites outside of the protection of the Earth’s magnetic field are particularly susceptible. The chance is low and predicting it is a bit like predicting the weather. The storms might not be more severe, but since mankind is becoming more dependent on satellites this is something NASA is taking seriously. Think about it: every time you swipe your card at a petrol station a satellite communication takes place.

Furthermore, Earth’s magnetic field can be altered during a strong storm. It would be a nuisance, but would not be the end of the Earth.

The Earth

Prediction: The magnetic field will reverse. The Earth will stop spinning and then start spinning the other way.

The scientific truth: The magnetic field does flip over on occasion.

earth's magnetic field cycleThis graph represents the entire traceable history of the Earth’s magnetic field. Black lines show when it is the same as it is now, white space represent the reversed polarity. This shows the last 3 million years of Earth’s history. Reversals happen at approximately 300 000 year intervals. The last one was 750 000 years ago, so in some senses we are ‘overdue’ for a shift. However, tool -using homo habilis appeared around 2.5 million years ago and there have been no obvious mass extinctions at the key reversal times, indicating a very low to no threat to our existence. The flip takes approximately 5000 years to complete and is not an instant change.

The magnetic field gets weaker before the reversal, and the Earth’s magnetic field is currently weakening by about 5% every 100 years, indicating that we are possibly heading towards another reversal. This weak fluctuation could just be what the magnetic field does, or it could be prior to a reversal. We don’t know yet. These reversals are caused by small changes in the field amplified by the rotation of the Earth, so the Earth’s spin certainly won’t be effected by the reversal to such an extent that it will stop all together, let alone change direction.

The Planets

Prediction: The alignment of the planets could pull Earth away from the Sun or rip Earth apart.

The scientific truth: The image below represents an alignment of the planets which occurred May 5th 2000 as viewed from the North Pole. From bottom to top they are the Earth, Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn.

planetary alignment

The effect of gravity on the Earth is crucial to all living things, especially with regards to the tides. We all know the effect the gravitational pull of the Moon has on tides. Do all of the planets ‘ganging up’ on one side of the Earth pose a real threat?

The primary gravitational pulls on the Earth are from the Sun and the Moon, with all of the planets combined contributing 1/200 of the Moon’s gravity. When considering the tides that figure decreases even more, with the Moon having the most effect on the tides, the Sun having a moderate effect, and the planets adding 64 millionths maximum of the Moon’s effect.

We have seen many planetary alignments in the night sky since we began observing the stars, and not a single one has resulted in catastrophic results for Earth.

Impact

Prediction: Comet, asteroid, Nibiru

The scientific truth: Nibiru is the supposed planet discovered by Sumerians circa 2500 BCE that orbits the Sun every 3600 years and is due to hit Earth in December 2012. Also known as Planet X, it supposedly has a very eccentric orbit.

elliptical orbit of Nibiru, planet x

1AU (astronomical unit) is 90 million miles or 150 million kilometers. The long direction of Nibiru’s orbit is said to be 470 AU. It must come within 1 AU to the Sun in order to potentially collide with Earth. The above ellipse is grossly inflated. It’s actually much flatter than it is represented there, essentially going backwards and forward along the same path. Unfortunately for the Sumerians, the path it takes faces directly towards the galactic core. People used to identify planets as they moved across a starfield, but not only did the Sumerians have to identify it as it came towards them without changing position of brightness, but they also had to identify it against the vast background of stars at the galactic centre.

 

Today Nibiru would be 7.5 AU away, between the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter. It was it’s furthest away in 200 AD and the closest in 1588BCE. However, there have been no sightings or records of disturbances by any of NASAs equipment, and many amateur astronomers would have sighted this planet by now if it did indeed exist. In 2500 BCE, at the time when the Sumerians claim to have observed it, Nibiru was 400 AU away (10x the distance of Pluto), yet they had no telescopes to observe it and we can not see Pluto with the naked eye.

Planets are like big dirty mirrors reflecting sunlight and do not produce their own light. In order for Nibiru to be visible to the Sumerians at 400 AU away it must be 150x the brightness of the Sun and 3.3 million masses of the Sun. Such planets are physically impossible to exist, and such stars do not even exist.

Could it possibly be a small star – a brown dwarf? A brown dwarf is basically a star that has failed to ignite. At around 400 AU a brown dwarf would look bright like any other of the planets to us. However, a brown dwarf at 7.5 AY, Nibiru’s supposed position today, would be as bright as the full moon and easily visible in daylight.

Conclusion: Nibiru is fiction. It is also the only 2012 prediction that seems to be purely fiction. All of the other theories have a seed of science beneath it, which has simply been misunderstood and abused.

As for the possibility of an asteroid collision, this is never entirely ruled out. An asteroid is left over from planet formation and most of them lie in the asteroid (or Kuiper) belt between Mars and Jupiter. Some are nudged by gravity into orbits that crass Earth’s orbit. An asteroid can cross our orbit with no collision, but there is some probability of a collision.

Small asteroids hit the earth’s atmosphere frequently, creating a meteor or a fireball. A lot land in the ocean or countryside.

Barringer crater

This is the Barringer crater, or meteor crater, in Arizona. It was created by a 50 meter sized object. There are one of these every 1000 years. This crater is 1 km across and is much older than 1000 years.

Once every 50 – 100 million years a body over 1 km in size hits Earth. 65 million years ago the Chicxulub crater was formed. This is possibly the impact that could have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs.

 

It would have kicked a phenomenal amount of dust into the atmosphere. That, combined with the subsequent tsunami, would have been devastating. The Lord Byron poem, Darkness, was written in the Summer of 1816, also known as the year without Summer, and is an interesting take on how people behave when they think the world is ending. Isaac Asimov’s Nightfall is another interesting perspective on people’s reactions to darkness.

In actual fact, in 1816 a volcano in the Philippines had erupted. That large eruption combined with smaller eruptions to push enough ash and dust into the atmosphere to cause serious problems. It will effect warmth, agriculture, and prevent people from traveling by air.

We are due for the next large impact and this is a serious problem. We do at least have the Near Earth Object monitoring program. One of the telescopes on the program is the Pan Starrs telescope based in Hawaii. It looks for objects 200 m wide and coming within 4.5 million miles of the Earth (20x the Moon’s distance). 1000s of objects are currently being watched by this program.

How NASA would move an asteroid would be to paint it’s solar side white so the asteroid will move. A robot could also be launched to erect a solar sail on it. The sunlight bouncing off of the sail will push the asteroid aside by the same principle. A shock wave from a nearby exploding rocket could move it, but the movies are horribly exaggerated when they direct a rocket straight at it, which in reality would result in the disastrous  situation of breaking the asteroid up into many large chunks.

By now we would have seen an asteroid lethal enough to wipe out Earth approaching. The next big one if expected in March 2880, so we can set our watches for that instead.

Black Hole

Prediction: The Earth will fall into the black hole at the centre of the Milky Way.

The scientific truth: The Sun is very far from the centre of the galaxy. However, this rumour was born because the Earth’s orbit takes it along the pane of the galaxy towards the black hole. On the 21st of December 2012 this annual alignment at the point closest to the centre of the galaxy will occur, as it always does.

We are 250 000 million million miles away from it. If the Earth was wrenched off it’s axis right now and started hurtling towards the black hole at literally the speed of light, it would take us 26 000 years to get there.

The unfortunate thing about all of these predictions is that whenever a prophesy such as this fails, it only strengthens people’s beliefs. There are some areas where rational argument will not reach, and for this reason we often play straight into the hands of conspiracy theorists who say we are all involved in covering up information.

Q&A

The question-and-answers session which followed Professor Burnell’s speech was quite interesting. She mentioned that in 1 billion years the Sun will heat up and boil the oceans. In 3 billion years the Andromeda galaxy will collide with ours, possibly splitting the Earth from the Sun and in 4.5-5 billion years the Sun will run out of Hydrogen gas and undergo a sequence of changes, swelling to 100x its size and possibly engulfing Mercury, Venus, and Earth.

There is a book called The Jupiter Effect which tried to suggest that the sunspot cycle could effect events on Earth such as earthquakes and volcanoes. According to Prof Burnell it has been “thoroughly rubbished” and is no longer taken seriously.

The solar system moving through colder patches in the galaxy will not effect Earth since our heat is derived from the Sun, not from surrounding areas. This will not trigger an ice age.

One man brought up the Gospel of Luke and Revelations in the Bible. At this stage I was quite pleased that Prof Burnell is a religious person (she was raised a Quaker) because she mentioned her religious beliefs but that she does not treat the Bible as a scientific text. In a South African space I think her response to this was excellent since people would be adverse to accepting things she told them if she had mentioned she had no belief whatsoever, possibly seeing it as “atheist science” rather than simply a secular approach to reality.

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22 responses to “Will the world end in 2012? The astronomical evidence.

  • maranda

    This is wonderfully informative and very interesting article. Well written. Congratulations on a super blog!

  • Marko

    Yes, a very informative article. Thanks for the nice review on the astronomical causes!

    Unfortunately those people who are likely to believe those never ending predictions wouldn’t read it. Uncertain mystical stories are more interesting than reality 🙂 Rumours spread much easier than bare facts. “Have you heard about X? Scaaaary!” People love it. So you come from the “end of the Mayan calendar” to “we will all die by some astronomical catastrophy”. Of course the Mayans knew it but with our crude technology today we couldn’t predict it even the day before 😉

    And btw: The world ends with the return of Jesus in May 21 this year! 🙂

  • Basil

    Woooo hooooo!!!!

    At last, someone actually writes an article that has proof that debunks all of these crappy end of the world scenarios.

    Have posted this on my FB page and hope all the doom sayers read it!

    🙂

  • kelltrill

    Thanks for the great comments. Ever since I did this post my blog traffic has spiked. It’s incredible how many people seem genuinely panicky about this.

    @Basil, Thanks for the punt.
    @Marko, I’m looking forward to the Rapture on May 21 as well. See you on the other side 🙂

  • MarioTime

    Thank you for all of this incredible information.

    Please tell me, people predited that the rapture would be on may 21

    do you think that god wanted to let us stay a little longer?

    • kelltrill

      Hi Mario, thanks for the comment.

      Beginning with the assumption that there is a god and that everything in the Bible is correct, the Rapture can be argued for or against based on scripture. The Bible says that no one shall know the time nor the day of when the world shall end, yet men such as Harold Camping has extrapolated numerology from the Bible saying that the Rapture is meant to occur 4000 yeas to the day after Noah’s flood, which would have been May 21st.
      Why would a loving, merciful god want to Rapture the good Christians and leave the rest of the world to burn in torment for 5 months? That means that loving mothers who are not Christian but who are good people will first have their babies ripped from them and then suffer on Earth before their suffering continues in Hell, all because they do not worship a god/the right god, regardless of whether they have actually ever done anything wrong in their lives. This doesn’t seem very merciful to me, yet it is in accordance with the Judeo-Christian god’s genocidal actions as depicted in the Bible. Only a merciful god would presumably stall the Rapture and let mankind live on Earth a bit longer, yet if this was the case why would he have misrepresented himself in the Bible if, presuming he’s omniscient, he would have known he was going to do this millennia ago? There are far too many contradictions in the story of the Rapture to make Camping’s predictions at all plausible.

  • 5 Lesser-Known End of the World Scenarios « Waxing Apocalyptic

    […] know some of you have been on my case about Nibiru, but that is 100% mythical. I’ve already addressed this issue). Here’s a short but sobering list of some recent cataclysmic causes of the end of the world […]

  • ethan fuller

    thankyou im only eleven and im very scared about this event thanks alot im not really scared now even though i couldnt understand half of it cause of the hard words but i got the main message
    thanks
    Ethan

    • kelltrill

      You’re welcome Ethan =) Thanks for the comment.
      There’s absolutely nothing to be worried about. A calendar over a thousand years old has no bearing on the world today beyond certain practical applications, such as its impact on the type of calendar we use today. It is not possible that they could have predicted how the world would end. There’s simply no connection between the calendar ending and the world ending.

      Mayan calendar comic

  • AFA GGAGagah

    hi thanks for the info so your saying that its not going to end thanks so much thats a big relief!
    🙂

  • Muhammad Farooq

    Allah is the only judge about what will happen in his universe.But the only thing i am sure about is that this disaster will happen because our last messenger of Allah (( Prophet Muhammad (S.A.W) )) is noted to have said (be powerful against the disaster which will happen because the grace does not last.We might have to refer to the bread and milling our own hands and live under the glare of lanterns and give up all our well-being).so that is the reason i am sure about and i hope people understand my words.

  • nezar

    New Age myths are so disgusting and childish. I am really disappointed in todays consciousness. After this statement everyone would expect me to say bravo to this blog – but no. The similar ignorance lays within scientists, but less mythical. I don’t blame them though, I just recognize that truth is slowly, gradually uncovered, with a lot of mistakes, dead ends and occasionally good leads.
    So, regarding 2012, or any other date, both past or future, it is stupid to say anything, for we are not even aware what is really going on right here an now around us, and within us. Why people can’t just focus on awareness, and try to be better humans?!

  • roofcleaningtampa

    People here in Tampa Florida are worried about 2012.
    This great article will set them straight.

  • cp1

    Well It must of taken you a while to put this together well done. However nobody says thats this solar max will be one for the books A once in A two century storm, Look up Michio Kauku Im sure you have heard of him. The truth is anything can happen

    • kelltrill

      Hi there, thanks for your comment.
      I know Kauku, I’m a fan of his work.
      My main aim with this post was to call out some of the woo stories a lot of people have been spreading online by highlighting some points Jocelyn Bell Burnell mentions. There have been people who have been saying that the solar max will cause a cataclysm on Earth. Her speaking out against it was in response to this large minority.

  • robertritch15

    enjoy this year. science and spirituality both have their own theory. but i think it is not the end on 21st. it will new begining. but still we are little bit worried about it. to clear your all doubt and know more about it . vsist: http://www.2012december21st.com/

  • jim white

    Very good reading feel safer already

  • Poppyseed

    I’m glad to have stumbled upon this article. Every once in a while I will Google things about the world ending in 2012 just to read about people shooting down these theories. I have a serious anxiety problem and I just freak about about this all the time. This was a good read. One question though, you mentioned a NASA helpline, I was just wondering if that is still up and running or if they took it down?

    Thanks again!

    • kelltrill

      Hi there! Thanks for your comment. I did some hunting around for the Nasa 2012 helpline but I’m afraid I couldn’t find any mention of it. It’s possible they just opened one while the movie 2012 was still very popular and had just been released because of the public frenzy that ensued. It’s also very likely that they’ll open it up again the closer we get to Dec 21st 2012, so keep an eye on the search engine results pages to do with “nasa 2012 helpline”, “nasa end of the world helpline” or assorted phrases and I’m sure that if it exists you’ll be able to track it down.

      Cheers =)

  • Money

    It will happen one day we ll ready to face that….

  • karthik

    i am very happy

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